Spot Bitcoin ETF Performance Outlook for 2024

Spot Bitcoin ETF Performance Outlook for 2024

Bitcoin price history provides clues about how spot bitcoin ETFs may perform.

kent
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Research Lead
Reviewed by: etf.com Staff
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Edited by: Lou Carlozo

The new spot bitcoin ETFs have been approved and are ready to trade. What now? A smart first step for investors and advisors is to understand how these new funds may perform in 2024 and beyond.

Since the new spot bitcoin ETFs will be the first opportunity to tightly track bitcoin’s price without directly holding the popular cryptocurrency, reviewing bitcoin price history provides clues about future performance for the new bitcoin spot ETFs.

A Brief History of Bitcoin Price Volatility 

Bitcoin has experienced significant – many would say nerve wracking – price volatility since its inception in 2009, with early values measured in fractions of a cent and reaching $1 in April 2011. The cryptocurrency's price has since witnessed dramatic fluctuations marked by rapid surges and corrections, driven by factors such as market speculation, regulatory developments, macroeconomic trends and shifts in institutional interest.  

Witness 2017, when bitcoin’s price began at just under $1,000 and rocketed to nearly $20,000 by year’s end. By September 2018, bitcoin collapsed 80% from its previous peak. Many investors seemingly got rattled by the fact that no central government backs bitcoin – nor does any physical asset (gold, for example) guarantee its worth. Even the mythical “Satoshi Nakamoto,” the supposed creator or co-creator of bitcoin, remains unknown.  

Still, bitcoin surpassed $60,000 in 2021, only to fall 50% to below $30,000 before climbing to its current peak of around $65,000, reached in November 2021. 

The first futures-based bitcoin ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) launched Oct. 19, 2021. And by mid-2022, when investors fully entered an inflation-inspired risk-off mode, bitcoin fell to its most recent low of around $16,000. 

How Might Spot Bitcoin ETFs Perform in 2024? 

Based upon bitcoin’s price history, and with tens of billions of dollars expected to flow into spot bitcoin ETFs in 2024, BTC could surpass its $65,000 high, with crypto services firm Matrixport predicting $120,000 by year’s end. But with two rapid 80% price declines as precedent, investors should prepare for a wild ride this year.

To paraphrase the investor community’s favorite Mark Twain quote, history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

The next wildcard to consider for bitcoin performance in 2024 is the highly anticipated “halving event,” which happens roughly every four years and as the name implies, limits the cryptocurrency supply by cutting in half what miners receive. That will almost certainly bring more bitcoin price volatility, financial media chaos and educational opportunities.

Kent Thune is Research Lead for etf.com, focusing on educational content, thought leadership, content management and search engine optimization. Before joining etf.com, he wrote for numerous investment websites, including Seeking Alpha and Kiplinger. 

 

Kent holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree and is a practicing Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) with 25 years of experience managing investments, guiding clients through some of the worst economic and market environments in U.S. history. He has also served as an adjunct professor, teaching classes for The College of Charleston and Trident Technical College on the topics of retirement planning, business finance, and entrepreneurship. 

 

Kent founded a registered investment advisory firm in 2006 and is based in Hilton Head Island, SC, where he lives with his wife and two sons. Outside of work, Kent enjoys spending time with his family, playing guitar, and working on his philosophy book, which he plans to publish in the coming year.